Super Super Insights #2

Avery Singer Living on Broadway (study), 2023

Market: The calm before the final storm

Those of you who visited even a pair of the 4 major European art fairs this fall did a good job at following the art-world circus, as it rolled up in back to back weeks in London, Paris, Turin and finally Cologne. This is indeed the new normal, with autumn now holding its place as a high point of the art calendar, punctuated by the New York auction sales that took place in the middle of November. On the occasion of the ART COLOGNE, we also opened our latest exhibition of 3 emerging female artists Tugce Dayioglu, Tessa Perutz, Kim Stolz.

Of the notable fairs left, we have Art Basel Miami Beach’s 21st edition set to open on December 8. We’ve compiled a list of our favourite previews, booths and places to visit that you can explore here.

These Super Super Insights break down rising art stars and the boost of new gallery representation models. After analysing why 2024 will be a buyer’s market, we share key findings from the New York auctions last month and what their results say about the health of today’s market.

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Primary: Rapid Rise: Young artists' explosive growth

It’s more of a regular occurrence that we’re seeing super in demand young artists being picked up by blue-chip galleries, even right after their graduation. Whereas in the past, a young artist’s talent would be fostered by an emerging gallery of under 10 years, aiming to grow and define a new generation together. Now, we’re seeing a squeeze in the time frame, where blue-chip galleries are cherry-picking the next potential star artists, putting both their careers and prices on steroids. You may wonder, how can this be taken into consideration when collecting / supporting an emerging artist and when is THE moment to spot an upward trajectory of their career?

Two things that are certain when a young artist joins a blue-chip, are the rise in prices and the demand, (or the existence of a waiting list). Whilst these both seem fairly obvious, the tactic itself is a mechanism for the larger gallery to safeguard the market, in essence, to create further demand and protection so that the artist's work is entering ‘the right’ collections. This means that the works won’t be flipped, which could cause a price-swing for the artist on the secondary market, let alone enter the secondary market so early. Secondly a demand allows for a waiting list of suitors, where the gallery can pick and choose who to sell to, ideally placing the artist in the most sought after collections. That’s where it becomes increasingly difficult to obtain any work of an in demand artist for a young collector. It’s right to the back of the queue – and maybe – the queue moves, and you don’t find out where it moved to… Too late!

Therefore, our advice would be to read up on the artists whose work you like, find out their upcoming exhibitions in the following year, talk to other artists in the same orbit and learn to ask questions. There are no wrong questions! We at Super Super Markt are happy to help discuss this of course, but it’s important to make decisions and stick with them. No regrets. If an opportunity arises to purchase and you catch a breath of certain moves that the artist is going to make in the next 12 months, weigh up whether now is a good time to purchase, before you're outpriced. Some of the world’s best collectors also often collect artists in-depth, which means that you try to purchase more than one work (when you can). Once you make the decision that you like the work of an artist, double down on it – this won’t only enormously support the artist’s career, but also solidify your collection. Instead of buying 10 different works that you like, think about an artist you love and get your hands on a piece from each of their bodies of work. Who wouldn’t like to live with 10 Kippenbergers, instead of 10 works from a variety of artists of his generation?

Buyers Market 2024

In the primary market, there have been several instances where dealers have said 2024 is set to be ‘a buyer’s market’. This is literally what it means (!) However, reading into this more closely, the key here is that with recent subdued auction results and a general lack of optimism in the wider markets, now is a good time to look for deals and get access where you can for the next 12 months. By that, we mean galleries are more likely to listen to offers where before in a frothy market, there was no chance of this ever happening.
A case in point here is the lack of stellar lots consigned in the 2023 auctions: Aside from major acquisitions for Sotheby’s in The Emily Fischer Landau sale, or the Christie's Reitman sale, it’s clearly a time where collectors are trying to hold back from placing works in auctions. It seems like 2024 will be a tough year for secondary markets...

Secondary: What happened in the November auctions and what does it mean for 2024?

As we teed up last time around, the November auctions would serve as a telling sign of the market’s health, and that they did: Despite focussing on the high-end, these things always implicate the mood the further you go down, causing a ripple effect. What were our key findings and takeaways?

Ultra-Contemporary female artists’ results are what’s hot

Several Ultra-Contemporary artists have experienced sharp rises in their auction prices over recent years. By Ultra-Contemporary, we mean under the age of 40. Several signs suggest that this market spike is yet to die down:

Male artists such as Oscar Yi Hou whose work has been seen in a recent survey East of sun, west of moon at The Brooklyn Museum in New York had a painting achieve double its (already high) estimate. Quite an achievement for a 25 year old artist, with the work selling for $95.250. Mohammed Sami, had his painting reach 6 times its high estimate at close to a million dollars.

Oscar yi Hou Mlle. Chris à central park 103rd, en automne, 2019, Sotheby's, Sold for $95.250

However, the overall attention in Ultra-Contemporary has undoubtedly been for that of female painters. Of the names who achieved significant prices in the New York sales this fall, it would be hard to ignore Stefanie Heinze’s Third Date, which more than tripled its low estimate, Jenna Gribbon’s Regarding Me Regarding You and Me also quadrupling its low estimate. With both works completed only in 2020, we are seeing considerable attention in young female artists that work figuratively.

Jenna Gribbon Regarding Me Regarding You and Me, 2020, Christie's, Sold for $478.000

British painters Issy Wood, Caroline Walker, Jadé Fadojutimi, and Lynette Yiadom-Boakye continue to feature regularly across all of the 3 major auction houses, and as all three of their primary market demand rises, so do their secondary market results. Yiadom-Boakye was the recipient of a recent survey at Tate Britain in London, further cementing her status as a genuine star of the contemporary art market. It should also be noted that newcomer Ilana Savdie’s Deliberate Rotation of The Nips (y un Manguito) painting sold for double its high estimate at Phillips Day Sale for $69.850 after being completed 2 years ago.

Secondary Results show the market is calming down

In the podcast The Week in Art by The Art Newspaper, acting art market editor Tim Schneider reported that the ‘frothy-market’ of recent years is calming down and that we can expect more jittery sales in the coming year. Phillips Auction Houses’ Deputy Chairman Robert Manley even went so far as to say everyone was a ‘little nervous’ going into these auctions.

What does this mean for collectors? Well, many collectors will choose not to consign A grade works into future auctions. We see lower thresholds of entry, perhaps less high-quality examples of works coming to auction, but a silver lining: More accessibility. While Ultra-Contemporary female artists’ works are generally selling for higher prices at auction, there is more overall hesitancy in the market. Of the 3 major auction houses, Sotheby’s was a fraction below its estimate of $200M, Phillips’ Triton Collection sale hammered for $69.9M against a low estimate of $72.7M, and Christie’s first evening sale of the season recorded a total hammer price of $88.4M against a presale estimate of $96M.

Amedeo Modigliani Tête de jeune fille (Louise), 1915, Phillips, Sold for $5.868.000

Auction houses are finding new ways to offer contemporary art, away from traditional models

Phillips now offer Dropshop – 'Our Dropshop platform connects our audience directly with the influential artists, collaborators, and brands shaping today’s contemporary culture’. These limited-time releases are exclusive to their online platform, conceived in close curation with their collaborators. A Basquiat record edition, an Emily Mae Smith sculpture: Once these pieces are gone, they’re gone. Their aim? To celebrate artists in the primary market and empower them in the secondary market, so they write.

The Estate of Jean-Michel Basquiat Beat Bop, 1983

So how does this fare amongst the other 2 major houses. Christie’s and Sotheby’s have been operating ‘selling exhibitions’, much like a commercial gallery, for a number of years already. What does this spell for the future of the primary / secondary market? Well, we believe more of a blurring between the lines. As auction houses look to double down on private sales, there seems to be more of an interest to galvanise an audience of younger collectors, and specifically a new generation of collectors. The UBS art report noted a spike in collectorship from a younger audience. The report noted that millennials still spent more on sculptures, installations, photography, and film or video art. Gen Z collectors had the highest average expenditure on prints and digital art, indicating that these could be important and accessible mediums for younger collectors entering the art market. It seems quite clear this is a chance for the auction houses to experiment with different ways to connect with younger collectors who might otherwise not be interested in bidding or buying in the secondary market.

3 things to add to your calendar

1. Miami (December 8 – 10, 2023)

For those Europeans looking to escape the wet December weather and general grey-ness of Berlin, Paris or London, they can look forward to Art Basel Miami Beach, now celebrating its 21st edition. Dipping into the ocean before breakfast and heading into the Miami Beach convention centre is a must to freshen up and start the day, followed by drinks on Collins Ave. afterwards. What makes Miami Beach such a popular edition of the Art Basel fair franchise is the relaxed and warm atmosphere visitors and collectors bring with them and with all the major blue-chip and emerging galleries on show, it’s a special trip with an abundance of afterparties and events in the Wynwood design district and Miami Beach strip throughout the week.

Art Basel Miami Beach, 2022

2. St. Moritz (December 2023 – April 2024)

Likewise, for a winter-themed art escape, St. Moritz enjoys a peak season in December and in the run up for the holidays and New Year. Highlights include a new exhibition of works by Gerhard Richter – made in response to Switzerland’s Engadin valley. The show is a collaboration between 3 institutions in the region: Hauser & Wirth St. Moritz, the Segantini Museum and Nietzsche-Haus in nearby Sils Maria. With a collection of loans from museums and private collections, Gerhard Richter: Engadin brings together a body of work that spans three decades, running from mid-December until April 2024.

3. Mexico City (February 7 – 11, 2024)

ZONAMACO celebrated its 20th year in 2023. With the February fair boasting a stellar line up of international galleries, teamed up with Mexico City now being the place to be for European and East/West Coast North American galleries to set up shop, it’s certainly a great fair to visit in 2024. To counter it, there is the smaller emerging art fair, Material Art Fair now in its 10th edition that has a fantastic list of younger galleries from around the world. If you need tickets for either of the fairs, just let us know.
Mexico City in February is a tonic in contrast to the cold European climate, especially with the city’s plethora of stunning architectural gems, world-class museums, and restaurants to match. Running concurrently with the art fairs, major solo exhibitions at the Museo Tamayo by Petrit Halijaj and Ragnar Kjartansson will be on show and worth catching before heading to the Pacific or Caribbean coast!